This is a NAM's depiction of where the heaviest snow will fall. The totals seem high but with these early spring systems big snows are always a possibility.
This should the be the national news story starting the week. The bigger high impact story will unfold in the southern plains as rich moisture streams north in response to a negatively tilted trough. Good convergence and backing surface winds along a dryline in western/Central OK and along the Red River Valley of TX should be the focus for some real tornado potential. The shear is outstanding with helicities off the charts. If a storm moves off this boundary it should spin like crazy.
Tuesday evening 7pm. The CINH does erode pretty well. The big issue I see is shear and moisture is not real well juxtaposed. Trade weaker capping for more of a chance of storms lining out.
Anyhow, as much as I'd like to go play in OK for a couple of days, it just isn't in the cards for me. I still like slow moving June storms with fewer chasers around though.
Some local shots from this weekend.
Tiger stripe ice over Deer Lake 3 29 14.
A wider view of the 3 29 14 sunset. Over 2 feet of ice still. You can drive on it safely if you can find an entry point of the south side of the lakes. The north sides may be a little dicey now with the powerful sun.
Lots of hawks moving back into the area today.
This one spent the entire afternoon on a light pole by our home.
Something caught his attention up high. I could see from my position what he was looking at.
Not much for ducks around yet. Some of the swans and geese are making use of what little open water there is.
One brightly colored kestrel hanging around and waiting for a mouse.
Looking forward to the upcoming week and getting a little armchair chasing in to knock the winter rust off. It will be time soon here in the northern plains. Even April can be good as evidenced in 2011 on April 11th in western and northwester Iowa.
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