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Anything outdoors!  Tornadoes, eagles, blizzards, or auroras.  If it is in the sky, running through the woods or swimming in the water, I'm there!

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Friday, May 22, 2009

Grasping at straws....

The next to total lack of chaseable storms is creating a weird offshoot of the SDS issues. It's something more serious called CFS....or Can't Forecast S**t. Some damn good chasers are trying so hard to read between the lines and find some obscure event and excuse to chase, they are letting common sense go right out the window. It's as simple as moisture, instability, and a lifting mechanism. Put all three of the aforementioned ingredients below the required minimums for a severe event and what do you get? Put two of the three at the minimum threshold and throw in the variable of weak wind support and guess what? A bad outcome.

Not feeling real good about the rest the month. I cannot fathom going the whole month of May without a meaningful chase but it sure looks like it is going to happen. I'm still holding out for hope for June and July will still hold a surprise day or two up here. Outside outside of "hope", the long range GFS is hinting at a MAJOR pattern change finally around the end of the first week of June. Yes, I said June.

3 comments:

Midwestchaser said...

I still dont regret going out. Was it the smartest chase I've ever done? No, but it also wasnt the worst one I've done. Now that I got some SDS relief I think I can allow common sense back in to my head.

mnwxchaser said...

Oh, I don't blame you for going. It was the only show in the country that day. My thoughts are more so directed at the crazed masses who have now begun to wishcast using the ETA-NAM. A wise piece of information passed on to me very early in my chasing career is true now more than ever..."If the forecast looks like crap, it's crap. Go mow the grass." Wonder where that one came from? Amazing how good the lawn looks and how much fishing I'm getting in this year.

drewsroo said...

Guilty as charged...

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