Saturday's chase potential..time for the northern plains?

Real moisture transport? Yes. A lack of a focused lift? Yes. The usual problematic issues up here. Going off last night's model data, there is potential for a late evening/overnight event in southeast ND but capping is going to be a huge issue.

Now on to the fun stuff. The SPC has a more realistic approach with the "if's", but FGF is really jumping the gun in terms of potential. Let me quote their AFD from:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
416 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

AGREE WITH SPC SWODY3 OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A POTENTIALLY LARGE OUTBREAK. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW TORNADOES IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE THE LARGEST SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FOR THE AREA SINCE THE 26 JUNE 2009 EPISODE.

Wow....they make it sound like armageddon but I'm thinking Monday will be the real show with a real warm front to play with.