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Anything outdoors!  Tornadoes, eagles, blizzards, or auroras.  If it is in the sky, running through the woods or swimming in the water, I'm there!

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Thursday, April 23, 2009

Still contemplating chasing IA tomorrow



Seems like kind of a no brainer if someone just wants to see a storm tomorrow. Surface obs are dismal still with the *better* moisture near MCI but trying to work it's way north and east. I have my gear packed just in case but I'm throwing the models out at this point and going purely off obs in the morning and early afternoon. Getting just south of the front on I35 by 4pm and waiting should be a safe bet. Less than 50% chance I'll pull the trigger attm but it has been a long winter and a quiet spring so far. The LCL's look just brutal even for linear storms...

DMX's AFD:

ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THIS ERODES TOWARD THE 00Z
TIMEFRAME AND ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT AROUND THAT TIME ACRS NORTHERN
IA. PROFILES ARE GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL IN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME DECENT SPEED SHEAR AS WELL AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
ENHANCED BACKING OF SFC FLOW MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY IN
THE NORTH AND ANTICIPATE SOME SUPERCELLS DURING THE EVENING.
HAIL...WIND AND A FEW ISOLATED TORS WL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR THE BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS
GRADUALLY SOUTH INTO THE STATE.

I can't recall one decent speed shear event I have ever chased where the cells didn't quickly evolve into a stretched out mess. Hmmmmm....

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