Need to start this off with my annual disclaimer. I am a STORM CHASER and not a TORNADO CHASER. Basically I'm a simple storm whore who will pretty much go after anything. However, I am always DAD and the sig other, (Melinda), comes first so sometimes I cannot make it out.
Even if I had all of the time and money to go where ever, when ever, the family comes first. Years ago I tried to push chasing to the front and bottom line is the real world doesn't work that way.
I CANNOT STAND "chasers" armed with an air card and a SWODY1. Install SN on your laptop and you become a "chaser"....right? No you become a scumbag leech.
On to tomorrow's chances. A sagging cold front. Yippee. I am a strong believer in the need to have low level directional shear. This setup doesn't have it so therefore I'll throw out my best guess for something as close to home as possible while still being a cool storm. The good old SPC has highlighted a couple of areas. Yawn. I'll agree on the likelihood of initiation in western WI tomorrow afternoon. However, as with all CF setups, the winds are going to turn to the SW and parallel the front. Not good for low level shear but good for training storms. As the H7 temps cool and assuming the WI storms do fire, the moisture and richer theta e air will move into south central MN and north central IA. I really think the EML will be an issue further to the SW and the convective temps look brutal on the OZ forecasted soundings.
With all that being said and not seeing the 12Z runs, I like the area around Albert Lea, MN. Nice thermal axis and theta e tongue and should be in the area as the line of storms should build to the SW out of WI with time. As slow as the cold front is moving, may be a good opportunity to sit on a n/s option during the evening and just enjoy the storms rolling by.
2 comments:
The good thing about tomorrow is the storm motion look slow. Thats about the only positive I see. Maybe some good video for a time lapse of a shelf? As much as I hate to pass up on a chase, my damn allergies have been killing me. I looked like Satan last night my eyes were so red.
Small correction... install a SN placefile on your laptop and you become a leech. You don't even need to report! Excellent!
-----
"Install SN on your laptop and you become a "chaser"....right? No you become a scumbag leech."
Post a Comment